Northern Border Pipeline has issued an active OFO (Operational Flow Order) effective immediately and until further notice due to low system inventory and linepack concerns driven by sustained cold weather. Shippers are required to stay within 5% or 25,000 Dth/day of posted nominations, with NBPL reserving the right to impose further restrictions including prorated meter capacity adjustments. Although the notice references an end date of January 30, 2026, the 'until further notice' language and Revision 3 status indicate the situation remains unresolved.
Active NBPL OFO with 'until further notice' language and no restoration timeline tightens Canadian supply flows into the U.S. Midwest, expect bullish pressure at Chicago Citygate and NGPL Midcontinent basis with risk of escalation to firm curtailments if linepack does not recover.
Reroute: Limited: Alliance Pipeline provides an alternative Canadian import path into Chicago but is typically fully subscribed, especially during cold weather demand events. No meaningful reroute exists to fully replace constrained NBPL volumes into the Midwest.
Below alert threshold -- no detailed analysis performed.
Reroute: Not assessed.
Northern Border Pipeline (NBPL)
UPDATE: OFO - Under Performance, Effective ID1 Gas Day January 21
SEV 3/5
Operational Alert0.740 Bcf/dUntil Further Notice
Northern Border Pipeline has issued an updated OFO for under-performance, effective Gas Day January 21, 2026, and continuing until further notice. Receipt capacity at Stateline is capped at 100,000 MMBtu/d and Spring Creek at 640,000 MMBtu/d (combined 0.740 Bcf/d), with North Roosevelt showing no change from prior revision. NBPL explicitly states it cannot absorb imbalances from supply under-deliveries or market overtakes, and shippers have no guarantee of delivery beyond quantities received.
NBPL OFO caps 0.740 Bcf/d of Canadian border receipt capacity until further notice; expect mild tightening at Chicago citygate and NGPL Midcontinent as Western Canadian supply into the U.S. Midwest remains constrained with no defined restoration timeline.
Reroute: Limited: Alliance Pipeline provides an alternative Canadian import corridor into Chicago from a different border crossing, but volumes are typically fully subscribed and cannot fully replace constrained NBPL receipts at Stateline and Spring Creek.
Below alert threshold -- no detailed analysis performed.
Reroute: Not assessed.
Northern Border Pipeline (NBPL)
UPDATE: OFO - Under Performance, Effective ID2 Gas Day January 21
SEV 2/5
Informational0.855 Bcf/d
This is Revision 3 of an OFO under-performance notice originally issued January 20-21, 2026, now reposted on March 20, 2026 -- more than 30 days after the original event. The current revision updates North Roosevelt receipt capacity to 115,000 Dth/d while leaving Stateline (100,000 Dth/d) and Spring Creek (640,000 Dth/d) unchanged from the prior revision. No new escalation triggers are present; combined receipt capacity across the three constrained locations totals approximately 0.855 Bcf/d.
No new market impact -- operational situation unchanged from prior revision, market has already priced this constraint.
Reroute: Limited: Alliance Pipeline provides a partial alternative for Canadian gas into Chicago from a different border crossing, but volumes are typically fully subscribed and cannot fully replace NBPL receipt capacity. Constraints at Stateline, Spring Creek, and North Roosevelt tighten Midwest/Chicago supply with limited practical bypass.
