How Critical Notices Are Scored

Overview

Every pipeline notice detected by Enercast is evaluated by an AI model and assigned a severity score from 1 to 5. The score reflects the expected market impact of the event — specifically its potential to affect regional basis differentials, physical supply availability, and Henry Hub price direction over the following 1–5 trading days.

Scores are generated automatically within seconds of a notice being detected. They are not guaranteed to be accurate and should be treated as a starting point for analysis, not a definitive assessment.

The Severity Scale

• Severity 5 — Major Market Impact: Force majeure events, large unplanned outages (>0.3 Bcf/d), or constraints on bottleneck pipelines with limited reroute. Expect significant basis movement. Examples: FGT Zone 3 force majeure, Transco critical constraint.
• Severity 4 — Significant Impact: Unplanned compressor outages, capacity reductions of 0.1–0.3 Bcf/d, or events on pipelines serving LNG feed gas or major demand centers. Basis impact likely.
• Severity 3 — Moderate Impact: Planned maintenance with meaningful capacity reduction, OFOs on major pipelines, or constraints with available reroute. Monitor closely.
• Severity 2 — Minor Impact: Small capacity restrictions, localized meter issues, or planned maintenance with full reroute available. Limited basis implication.
• Severity 1 — Informational: Routine operational bulletins, scheduling notices, and administrative postings with no capacity impact.

Scoring Inputs

The AI model considers the following factors when assigning a severity score:

• Capacity volume — Affected throughput in MMBtu/day or Bcf/d
• Event type — Force majeure, compressor failure, planned maintenance, meter restriction, OFO, etc.
• Pipeline role — Whether the pipeline is a major interstate trunk, a regional distributor, or a LNG feed gas conduit
• Reroute availability — Whether alternative pipelines can absorb the displaced volumes
• Duration — Estimated or stated outage duration
• Direction — Whether the event is bullish or bearish for regional basis and Henry Hub
• Segment location — Upstream production area, midstream interconnect, or downstream demand center

Trading Notes

In addition to the severity score, each alert includes a plain-language trading note that identifies the most likely market implication. Trading notes cover:

• Basis differential impact (which trading points are affected and in which direction)
• Reroute potential (which alternative pipelines could absorb volumes and at what capacity)
• LNG feed gas exposure (whether the event threatens export terminal supply)
• Storage and withdrawal season context where relevant

How to read a notice: a real example

Columbia Gulf Transmission posted this on October 20, 2026 about maintenance a week later. Highlighted is what matters:

Notice what Enercast did that the posting does not: it converted Dth to Bcf/d, turned a capacity setting into a reduction (and labeled it derived), worked out which way the price moves and why, and judged whether the gas can go elsewhere. The event then appears on the Capacity Offline calendar for October 27–28.

Field guide

Event type

• Force majeure — unplanned; a failure, leak or storm.
• Maintenance — planned work, usually posted days or weeks ahead.
• Capacity constraint — a point or segment limited below normal.
• Compressor issue — a unit or station problem short of force majeure.
• Operational alert — OFOs, pressure warnings, balancing alerts.
• Restoration — capacity coming back (a lift).
• Informational — routine postings with no capacity effect.

Capacity (Bcf/d)

Labeled by how it was obtained: stated (the pipeline posted the cut), derived (posted cap subtracted from posted prior or design capacity) or ~est. (the drop in posted operating capacity, when the notice gives no volume). A ceiling alone is shown but never counted as a loss.

Direction

Bullish when supply is stranded (production, processing, imports); bearish when demand is cut (LNG feedgas, citygates, power plants); neutral or regional when the effect stays in basis. The regional line names the trading points.

Reroute potential

High, Moderate, Limited or None: whether other pipelines can carry the displaced gas. The same Bcf/d matters more when reroute is limited.

Revisions and lifts

Pipelines revise notices often. Enercast keeps every revision and shows the latest; the capacity ledger follows the dates forward and closes the event when the lift posts.

Limitations

Enercast does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any score, summary, or trading note. See the Disclaimer for full terms.

Duplicate and Revision Handling

Pipeline operators frequently revise notices — sometimes dozens of times for a single event. Enercast tracks revisions and suppresses duplicate alerts for the same underlying event unless a material change is detected (e.g., a significant change in capacity volume or a status change from planned to force majeure). The latest revision is always displayed on the website.

Supply & Demand Figures

The Supply & Demand pages follow a separate principle: every figure is a posted scheduled quantity, never a scaled estimate. That methodology is described at Posted Quantities, Not Estimates.

Free vs Pro

The website shows every active notice with its score and summary, refreshed several times a day; free email/Telegram alerts cover severity 4–5 with a one-hour delay. Pro gets real-time alerts within ~2 minutes of posting, with the full AI trading note. Compare →

Critical Notices FAQ

More questions? See the general FAQ (plans, timing, access) or email support@enercast.com.

More guides: How Enercast works · Capacity offline · Supply & demand · Getting alerts · Glossary