[Transwestern Pipeline] [Capacity Constraint] M/L THOREAU WEST SYSTEM
SEV 4/5Force Majeure1 days
Summary
Transwestern Pipeline has declared a force majeure on the M/L Thoreau West System effective Oct 25 9:00 AM through Oct 26 8:59 AM (one gas day). This is a revision of prior notice TW-121532 (same event, same location), sliding the effective window forward by one day; no capacity figures are stated in either notice. Pre-event flow past Station 3 (Leupp, AZ) had been running at a median of approximately 1.11 Bcf/d westbound (range 1.02-1.26 Bcf/d over Oct 18-24), but the notice provides no cap or stated reduction, so net cut is unquantified.
Trading note
TW force majeure on the Thoreau West mainline (pre-event ~1.11 Bcf/d westbound) cuts unquantified capacity on the San Juan/Permian-to-California corridor for one gas day (Oct 25-26); expect bullish pressure at SoCal Border and Arizona delivery points, with offsetting bearish pressure at Waha/San Juan as westbound takeaway is impaired -- update_direction is bearish because the prior notice (TW-121532) already covered Oct 24-25 and this posting simply shifts the FM window one day forward with no new operational escalation.
Reroute potential
Moderate: EPNG serves the same SoCal border market and provides a partial alternative, but if EPNG is simultaneously constrained no California reroute exists; check EPNG conditions before assuming full offset.
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