Overview
Every pipeline notice detected by Enercast is evaluated by an AI model and assigned a severity score from 1 to 5. The score reflects the expected market impact of the event — specifically its potential to affect regional basis differentials, physical supply availability, and Henry Hub price direction over the following 1–5 trading days.
Scores are generated automatically within seconds of a notice being detected. They are not guaranteed to be accurate and should be treated as a starting point for analysis, not a definitive assessment.
The Severity Scale
- Severity 5 — Major Market Impact: Force majeure events, large unplanned outages (>0.3 Bcf/d), or constraints on bottleneck pipelines with limited reroute. Expect significant basis movement. Examples: FGT Zone 3 force majeure, Transco critical constraint.
- Severity 4 — Significant Impact: Unplanned compressor outages, capacity reductions of 0.1–0.3 Bcf/d, or events on pipelines serving LNG feed gas or major demand centers. Basis impact likely.
- Severity 3 — Moderate Impact: Planned maintenance with meaningful capacity reduction, OFOs on major pipelines, or constraints with available reroute. Monitor closely.
- Severity 2 — Minor Impact: Small capacity restrictions, localized meter issues, or planned maintenance with full reroute available. Limited basis implication.
- Severity 1 — Informational: Routine operational bulletins, scheduling notices, and administrative postings with no capacity impact.
Scoring Inputs
The AI model considers the following factors when assigning a severity score:
- Capacity volume — Affected throughput in MMBtu/day or Bcf/d
- Event type — Force majeure, compressor failure, planned maintenance, meter restriction, OFO, etc.
- Pipeline role — Whether the pipeline is a major interstate trunk, a regional distributor, or a LNG feed gas conduit
- Reroute availability — Whether alternative pipelines can absorb the displaced volumes
- Duration — Estimated or stated outage duration
- Direction — Whether the event is bullish or bearish for regional basis and Henry Hub
- Segment location — Upstream production area, midstream interconnect, or downstream demand center
Trading Notes
In addition to the severity score, each alert includes a plain-language trading note that identifies the most likely market implication. Trading notes cover:
- Basis differential impact (which trading points are affected and in which direction)
- Reroute potential (which alternative pipelines could absorb volumes and at what capacity)
- LNG feed gas exposure (whether the event threatens export terminal supply)
- Storage and withdrawal season context where relevant
Limitations
AI-generated scores and trading notes are produced automatically and may contain errors. Pipeline notices can be ambiguous, and the true market impact of any event depends on factors not visible in the notice text alone — including real-time flow data, storage levels, weather, and market positioning. Always apply independent judgment before acting on any Enercast alert.
Enercast does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any score, summary, or trading note. See the Disclaimer for full terms.
Duplicate and Revision Handling
Pipeline operators frequently revise notices — sometimes dozens of times for a single event. Enercast tracks revisions and suppresses duplicate alerts for the same underlying event unless a material change is detected (e.g., a significant change in capacity volume or a status change from planned to force majeure). The latest revision is always displayed on the website.